Abstract
We imagine the result of the Venezuelan exodus to your Colombian labor industry. The economical and you can personal drama inside Venezuela brought about one of several primary migratory kyrgyzstan chat room exoduses when you look at the present many years: more than cuatro mil Venezuelans left their country and you may near to step one.8 billion found its way to Colombia. We demonstrate that a rise in 1 p.p out of labor likewise have due this new migratory flow caused a decrease during the every hour wages within the Colombia away from 0.4% and you may a terrible effect of 0.1 p.p. towards the a job speed away from lowest-competent specialists. The drop for the earnings are greater for men, low-skilled and you may informal workers.
Inclusion
The new Venezuelan migratory exodus is one of the most crucial attacks away from forced migration global: on cuatro.5 million away from Venezuelans leftover their country and you may gone someplace else Footnote 1 (UNHCR 2019). The most famous destination for departing Venezuelan migrants is actually Colombia. Based on certified statistics, there have been almost 1.8 billion regarding Venezuelans residing in Colombia during the 2019, compliment of the latest Venezuelan monetary and you can governmental crisis, and therefore means a rise in the fresh share away from Venezuelans residing Colombia relative to the newest federal population of 0.07% into the 2015 to three.6% whenever inside the 2019.
So it extreme bout of migration means difficulty so you’re able to policymakers exactly who seek to learn and assess the possibility economic and you may personal effects of these a giant inflow from immigrants, especially for server nations for example Colombia.
Inside paper, I mine the fresh new Venezuelan exodus in order to understand the migratory episode’s impact on the brand new Colombian work market. I incorporate a differences-in-differences strategy and run my analysis because of the considering the quantity of visibility round the Colombian departments to this exogenous labor supply treat, both before and after 2016 (i.e. 2013-2019). For the 2016 a significant and you will unanticipated migratory increase away from Venezuelans to Colombia took place if limitations between them nations have been reopened immediately following nearly a-year of closure.
My rates suggest that brand new intensification of your migratory move away from Venezuelans while it began with mid-2016 generated a critical miss inside the aggregate earnings as well as in the employment speed off lower-skilled specialists when you look at the Colombia. A boost in step one commission part (p.p.) of work force due to the inflow away from Venezuelans produced an excellent 0.4% decrease in wages and you may an effective 0.step one p.p. decrease in a job to own low-skilled specialists; it influence on employment represent a fall off 0.18% relative to the common employment rate of low-competent Colombian pros during the 2015, up until the Venezuelan exodus. Whenever i estimate these types of outcomes to own Colombian divisions located on the border which have Venezuela (Los angeles Guajira and Norte de Santander), results train your refuses in the earnings and you may a position for all professionals was indeed up to 10% and step 3.cuatro p.p. (a beneficial mediocre a career), respectively, following the edging try re also-unsealed.
To help you imagine the end result off migration within these a couple edging divisions, We construct a handling class having fun with three departments out-of Colombia one to weren’t firmly impacted by immigration and you will showed, typically, similar styles with respect to labor markets details together with comparable socio-demographic qualities prior to the edging lso are-beginning. To include robustness to these performance, We pertain a synthetic Handle Strategy and determine an identical variations-in-variations estimations offered other combos of divisions regarding Colombia because the control communities.
In addition imagine heterogeneous effects by the sex, quantity of degree, work formality and you will provided if the people were locals or otherwise not. I’ve found that, from inside the aggregate, the destruction when you look at the wages was higher for men as compared to women and much more powerful having reduced-competent gurus. Also, the latest reduction in wages try better to have relaxed experts but around are not essential differences when considering locals and you will low-natives; the only difference is the fact I have found a mathematically significant boost about informality price certainly one of low-residents within the Colombia.